A service with a real edge and a service that is a coin flip look identical to a customer for years — the variance is far larger than the edge. So do not take our word for any of this. Every call below states a price and a time, and Polymarket’s price history is public. If a price we quoted was never available when we quoted it, you can prove that yourself in two clicks.
Calls on this page
67
Timed before the event
58/67
Price matched at that time
58/58
Range-checked only
9
The last two columns are not the same claim. Price matched at that time means we pulled the book at the minute we say we froze the call and the number agreed. Range-checked only covers 9 older calls that were migrated without a freeze time — all we can show is that the price existed in that market before first pitch, which is corroboration, not proof. They are counted apart so the weaker evidence cannot hide inside the stronger.
This page checks 67 published calls, while the record headlines 63. The difference is 4 of the earliest calls, which carry no recorded identity — no game id, no event time — and are held out of the record and shown in their own section there. They are checked here anyway: their prices verify like any other, and leaving them off the one page built for sceptics would be the wrong instinct entirely. See them on the record →
Our price will sit slightly above theirs. Here is why.
ATLAS records the executable ask— what you would actually have paid. Polymarket’s history endpoint reports the midpoint, halfway between the best bid and the best ask. Verified against a live book on 12 August: bid 0.50, ask 0.53, midpoint 0.515, and the history tick read exactly 0.515.
So our number is higher by about half the spread, every time. That difference is not in our favour: quoting the midpoint would make every entry look better than it was. A row is flagged if our price sits below the midpoint, or more than half a spread above it.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves: OVER 8.5
frozen 2026-08-24T23:31:25.670Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 24, 19:31 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.5¢. Not yet settled.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.5¢
Tick distance
11s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.485, 11s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 24, 19:31 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.0¢. Not yet settled.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.0¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.52, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 24, 19:31 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. Not yet settled.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
12s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 12s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 24, 01:31 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.0¢. Not yet settled.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 20.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.0¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.49, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-08-24T00:31:24.339Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 23, 20:31 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. Not yet settled.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 25.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 22, 22:31 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
34s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 34s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies: UNDER 10.5
frozen 2026-08-23T00:30:37.217Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 22, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 45.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
45.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
26s
Ask 0.45 against a midpoint of 0.445, 26s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 22, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 41.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 40.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
41.0¢
Book midpoint then
40.0¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.41 against a midpoint of 0.4, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 22, 03:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
28s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.445, 28s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 21, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 43.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
43.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.0¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.43 against a midpoint of 0.42, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 21, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 46.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
46.0¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.46, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 21, 01:31 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.0¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.51, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 20, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 20, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 37.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 36.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
37.0¢
Book midpoint then
36.5¢
Tick distance
25s
Ask 0.37 against a midpoint of 0.365, 25s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-08-20T15:30:57.687Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 20, 11:30 ET we said OVER at 44.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 43.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
44.0¢
Book midpoint then
43.5¢
Tick distance
32s
Ask 0.44 against a midpoint of 0.435, 32s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 20, 11:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.5¢
Tick distance
31s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.455, 31s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 20, 09:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 10.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
7s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 7s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 23:31 ET we said UNDER at 44.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
44.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.5¢
Tick distance
14s
Ask 0.44 against a midpoint of 0.425, 14s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 23:31 ET we said OVER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 20.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.5¢
Tick distance
15s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.455, 15s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 20:31 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 10:30 ET we said OVER at 45.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 8.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
45.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.45 against a midpoint of 0.445, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 07:30 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
29s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 29s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 17, 12:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 6.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.5¢
Tick distance
15s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.455, 15s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 17, 12:30 ET we said UNDER at 42.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 41.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 7.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
42.0¢
Book midpoint then
41.5¢
Tick distance
17s
Ask 0.42 against a midpoint of 0.415, 17s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 16, 10:31 ET we said OVER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.5¢
Tick distance
29s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.485, 29s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 16, 00:31 ET we said OVER at 44.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 43.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
44.0¢
Book midpoint then
43.5¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.44 against a midpoint of 0.435, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 15, 04:30 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 8.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 14, 07:30 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 14, 07:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.5¢
Tick distance
21s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.455, 21s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 14, 01:30 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
27s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 27s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 13, 02:31 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 13.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 12, 07:30 ET we said UNDER at 42.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 41.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
42.0¢
Book midpoint then
41.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.42 against a midpoint of 0.415, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 12, 05:30 ET we said UNDER at 63.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 62.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 14.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
63.0¢
Book midpoint then
62.5¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.63 against a midpoint of 0.625, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 11, 21:30 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers: UNDER 9.5
frozen 2026-08-12T01:30:27.092Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 11, 21:30 ET we said UNDER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 24.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.0¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.54, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 11, 03:30 ET we said OVER at 43.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 15.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
43.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.5¢
Tick distance
17s
Ask 0.43 against a midpoint of 0.425, 17s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 11, 03:30 ET we said UNDER at 41.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 40.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
41.0¢
Book midpoint then
40.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.41 against a midpoint of 0.405, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 10, 10:06 ET we said UNDER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.0¢
Tick distance
11s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.53, 11s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 9, 18:12 ET we said UNDER at 45.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 2.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
45.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
20s
Ask 0.45 against a midpoint of 0.445, 20s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 9, 12:13 ET we said UNDER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.4h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 9, 12:13 ET we said OVER at 45.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.9h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
45.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.45 against a midpoint of 0.445, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 9, 12:13 ET we said UNDER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.9h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
21s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 21s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 7, 21:22 ET we said UNDER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.0¢
Tick distance
23s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.53, 23s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 7, 17:42 ET we said UNDER at 60.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 59.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 2.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
60.0¢
Book midpoint then
59.5¢
Tick distance
33s
Ask 0.6 against a midpoint of 0.595, 33s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 7, 15:42 ET we said UNDER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 6.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 7, 11:52 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 7.3h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
26s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 26s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles: UNDER 10.5
frozen 2026-08-06T13:25:30.591Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 6, 09:25 ET we said UNDER at 58.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 57.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 3.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
58.0¢
Book midpoint then
57.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.58 against a midpoint of 0.575, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 6, 09:25 ET we said OVER at 70.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 69.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 4.9h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
70.0¢
Book midpoint then
69.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.7 against a midpoint of 0.695, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 6, 09:25 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 4.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 13:47 ET we said UNDER at 47.0¢. Before the game this market traded between 46.5¢ and 52.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 8.8 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Pre-game range
47–53¢
Readings pre-game
22
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no moment to check. The price we recorded (0.47) did sit inside the 0.465–0.525 range this market traded in across 22 readings before first pitch — a tight range, so this is a meaningful check. It shows the number was real and reachable, not when we called it.
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no minute to line readings up against. What can be shown is the range: 22 readings before the game, between 46.5¢ and 52.5¢. The chart above is that whole pre-game history.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants: OVER 7.5
published 2026-08-05T17:47:42.388+00:00
No freeze time recordedPrice plausible
On Aug 5, 13:47 ET we said OVER at 58.0¢. Before the game this market traded between 56.5¢ and 57.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 11.6 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
58.0¢
Pre-game range
56–57¢
Readings pre-game
2
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no moment to check. The price we recorded (0.58) did sit inside the 0.565–0.575 range this market traded in across 2 readings before first pitch — a tight range, so this is a meaningful check. It shows the number was real and reachable, not when we called it.
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no minute to line readings up against. What can be shown is the range: 2 readings before the game, between 56.5¢ and 57.5¢. The chart above is that whole pre-game history.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 13:21 ET we said UNDER at 64.0¢. Before the game this market traded between 55.5¢ and 65.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 3.9 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
64.0¢
Pre-game range
56–65¢
Readings pre-game
27
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no moment to check. The price we recorded (0.64) did sit inside the 0.555–0.65 range this market traded in across 27 readings before first pitch — a wide range, so this check is weak. It shows the number was real and reachable, not when we called it.
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no minute to line readings up against. What can be shown is the range: 27 readings before the game, between 55.5¢ and 65.0¢. The chart above is that whole pre-game history.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies: UNDER 11.5
published 2026-08-05T17:21:26.79+00:00
No freeze time recordedPrice plausible
On Aug 5, 13:21 ET we said UNDER at 49.0¢. Before the game this market traded between 48.0¢ and 56.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 3.7 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Pre-game range
48–56¢
Readings pre-game
30
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no moment to check. The price we recorded (0.49) did sit inside the 0.48–0.56 range this market traded in across 30 readings before first pitch — a wide range, so this check is weak. It shows the number was real and reachable, not when we called it.
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no minute to line readings up against. What can be shown is the range: 30 readings before the game, between 48.0¢ and 56.0¢. The chart above is that whole pre-game history.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 13:21 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. Before the game this market traded between 45.5¢ and 50.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 3.8 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Pre-game range
46–51¢
Readings pre-game
29
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no moment to check. The price we recorded (0.48) did sit inside the 0.455–0.505 range this market traded in across 29 readings before first pitch — a tight range, so this is a meaningful check. It shows the number was real and reachable, not when we called it.
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no minute to line readings up against. What can be shown is the range: 29 readings before the game, between 45.5¢ and 50.5¢. The chart above is that whole pre-game history.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 13:01 ET we said UNDER at 48.0¢. Before the game this market traded between 27.5¢ and 54.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 2.9 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Pre-game range
28–55¢
Readings pre-game
25
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no moment to check. The price we recorded (0.48) did sit inside the 0.275–0.545 range this market traded in across 25 readings before first pitch — a wide range, so this check is weak. It shows the number was real and reachable, not when we called it.
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no minute to line readings up against. What can be shown is the range: 25 readings before the game, between 27.5¢ and 54.5¢. The chart above is that whole pre-game history.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies: UNDER 11.5
published 2026-08-05T17:01:32.844+00:00
No freeze time recordedPrice plausible
On Aug 5, 13:01 ET we said UNDER at 51.0¢. Before the game this market traded between 28.0¢ and 50.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 2.9 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Pre-game range
28–51¢
Readings pre-game
24
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no moment to check. The price we recorded (0.51) did sit inside the 0.28–0.505 range this market traded in across 24 readings before first pitch — a wide range, so this check is weak. It shows the number was real and reachable, not when we called it.
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no minute to line readings up against. What can be shown is the range: 24 readings before the game, between 28.0¢ and 50.5¢. The chart above is that whole pre-game history.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 13:01 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. Before the game this market traded between 51.0¢ and 70.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 2.9 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Pre-game range
51–71¢
Readings pre-game
23
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no moment to check. The price we recorded (0.53) did sit inside the 0.51–0.705 range this market traded in across 23 readings before first pitch — a wide range, so this check is weak. It shows the number was real and reachable, not when we called it.
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no minute to line readings up against. What can be shown is the range: 23 readings before the game, between 51.0¢ and 70.5¢. The chart above is that whole pre-game history.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 09:52 ET we said OVER at 59.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 58.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 9.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
59.0¢
Book midpoint then
58.5¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.59 against a midpoint of 0.585, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 09:52 ET we said UNDER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 5.3h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.565, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: OVER 9.5
frozen 2026-08-05T13:52:05.284Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 5, 09:52 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 8.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 09:20 ET we said UNDER at 68.0¢. Before the game this market traded between 37.5¢ and 68.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 0.5 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
68.0¢
Pre-game range
38–69¢
Readings pre-game
25
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no moment to check. The price we recorded (0.68) did sit inside the 0.375–0.685 range this market traded in across 25 readings before first pitch — a wide range, so this check is weak. It shows the number was real and reachable, not when we called it.
No freeze time survives for this call, so there is no minute to line readings up against. What can be shown is the range: 25 readings before the game, between 37.5¢ and 68.5¢. The chart above is that whole pre-game history.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 4, 16:54 ET we said UNDER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 2.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.545, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: OVER 8.5
frozen 2026-08-04T20:54:50.362Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 4, 16:54 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
20s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 20s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Jul 12, 10:47 ET we said SEATTLE STORM at 37.5¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 34.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Recorded 4.2h before the event started, from the publish time rather than a captured freeze. Start time taken from Polymarket's own market record, since ours predates the field.
We recorded (ask)
37.5¢
Book midpoint then
34.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.375 against a midpoint of 0.345, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Jul 10, 08:50 ET we said OVER at 43.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Recorded 9.8h before the event started, from the publish time rather than a captured freeze. Start time taken from Polymarket's own market record, since ours predates the field.
We recorded (ask)
43.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.5¢
Tick distance
20s
Ask 0.43 against a midpoint of 0.425, 20s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Jul 10, 08:50 ET we said ARGENTINA at 31.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 29.8¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Recorded 36.2h before the event started, from the publish time rather than a captured freeze. Start time taken from Polymarket's own market record, since ours predates the field.
We recorded (ask)
31.0¢
Book midpoint then
29.8¢
Tick distance
20s
Ask 0.31 against a midpoint of 0.2975, 20s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Jul 10, 08:50 ET we said OVER at 26.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 24.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Recorded 6.2h before the event started, from the publish time rather than a captured freeze. Start time taken from Polymarket's own market record, since ours predates the field.
We recorded (ask)
26.0¢
Book midpoint then
24.5¢
Tick distance
20s
Ask 0.26 against a midpoint of 0.245, 20s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
That a quoted price was real does not make the call a good one, and nothing here says our model beats the market — that question needs hundreds of settled results and is reported separately on Calibration, including when the answer is unflattering.
Timestamps are ours. A price checked against a public book cannot be invented, but the record is append-only rather than cryptographically sealed: withdrawn calls stay visible marked VOID, and two duplicates published on 12 August were voided that morning and remain on the record. Nothing is deleted; that is the guarantee, and it is a weaker one than a checksum would be.
And nine of the forty calls on the record carry no freeze time at all. They were migrated from an earlier system that never captured one, so the only timestamp on the row was written after the game — in one case eleven days after. We believe they were called before their events, and the group went 5-4 with four losses kept, which is not what a backfilled record looks like. But belief is not evidence, so they are flagged individually above rather than folded quietly into a total.